Posted by Richard Willett - Memes and headline comments by David Icke Posted on 23 February 2024

Why is the ONS suddenly changing the “excess deaths” numbers?

The UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) announced yesterday that they are changing the way they calculate “excess deaths” across the country.

“Deaths above expected” or “excess deaths” is a statistic indicating mortality trends. Roughly speaking, it is calculated by estimating how many people die per year (based on previous years), then subtracting that number from the actual number of registered deaths.

A negative number means fewer people died than expected, a positive number means more. It’s more complicated than that, obviously, there are numerous factors that go into the modelling, but that’s essentially it.

“Excess deaths” came to public prominence during the height of the Covid “pandemic”, becoming one of those scary red statistics everyone was bandying about.

…and now the ONS is changing the way they calculate it.

Why? We don’t know, but there are few hints.


Basically, excess deaths used to be based on a five year rolling average of registered deaths, and it’s now a rather more arcane mystery. (If you want to really dig into the method, they go into excruciating detail on their website).

Most importantly, we should note that the “old method” totally removed the “Covid” years from the modelling, while the “new method” only excludes a few months or weeks of 2020:

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