We told readers in late July, “Why AirBnB Owners Are About To Be Forced Property Sellers.” Then, one month later, in late August, we wrote “The AirBnB Bubble Popping Will Pop The Housing Bubble,” followed by “AirBnB Bubble Bursts: Investor Home Purchases Crash 45% In Biggest Drop Since 2008.”
Airbnb owners who snapped up homes in the last several years during the era of ‘free’ money are facing a downturn in the short-term rental market that started in the second half of 2022, with some Airbnb operators in cities facing 50% revenue declines, according to a recent note published by Reventure Consulting CEO Nick Gerli.
“I believe these losses will cause a wave of distressed selling from Airbnb operators in 2023 and 2024,” Gerli said.
Airbnb’s CEO recently warned of a “booking slowdown,” while airlines and retailers have warned of a consumer spending downturn. JPMorgan, Goldman, Bank of America, Barclays, and Citi have added more gloom as consumer credit card spending crashed in September.
Clearly, the Fed pinning interest rates at two-decade highs is leading to major economic cracks as a recessionary slowdown in travel demand emerges and crimps revenue for highly leveraged Airbnb operators, which depend on revenue streams to pay their mortgage payments.
Gerli said the revenue collapse is “most notable in the Southwest and Mountain West areas of the country, where Airbnb revenue per listing is down 40-50% YoY. With owners in cities such as Austin, Phoenix, Denver, and San Antonio taking the hardest hit.”
One X user posted, “The great Airbnb exit has begun.”
The great Airbnb exit has begun pic.twitter.com/VeSRBqsCZi
— Not Financial Advice (@notnotadvice) October 1, 2023
This X user gets it.
I hear many folks keep saying that homeowners have plenty of “equity” to withstand a correction.
— O’Hare Trade • Dude Diligence 🐢🏴☠️ (@OHare888) October 3, 2023