The unusually mild weather at the turn of the year in Central Europe has strengthened the belief of many in Germany that CO2-induced global warming is in full swing. Globally – and this is the only thing that matters – temperatures are developing in a different direction.
If we take the average of the last years, the global temperature has been constant for 8 years and 4 months.
In December, the deviation of the global temperature from the 30-year average of the satellite-based measurements of the University of Alabama (UAH) dropped again, to 0.05 degrees Celsius. To be sure, there is a long-term temperature increase through 2015. But it has averaged only 0.13 degrees Celsius per decade since 1979.
Weakening North Atlantic Oscillation
But it gets even better: the latest scientific studies show for Europe that it will first go slightly downhill for 15-20 years.
Some climate science heavyweights recently caused a stir in the Nature journal ‘Climate and Atmospheric Science’. Katja Matthes, director of the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel, Johann Jungclaus of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg and Nour-Eddine Omrani of the Norwegian Bjerknes Centre for climate research published a study showing that we are facing a weakening of the North Atlantic Oscillation, a cooling of the North Atlantic and a related global temperature development as between 1950 and 1970 (the authors say in their summary).
The graph shows the decline in North Atlantic temperatures by 2040, but because of the global warming trend, temperatures are not falling back to 1950-1970 levels, explains one of the authors, Eddine Omrani. The expected pause in warming gives us time, Omrani says, to work out technical, political and economic solutions before the next warming phase, which will take over again from about 2050.