Polls may significantly undercount Republican voters and supporters of former President Donald Trump following President Joe Biden’s speech that attacked “MAGA Republicans” earlier this month, according to a top independent pollster.
Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly wrote on Sept. 17 that Biden’s speech will make it more difficult to survey or even estimate Trump-aligned voters than in prior years. He noted that in 2016, a number of presidential polls and predictions regarding Trump and opponent Hillary Clinton proved to be inaccurate.
“In 2016, Trump supporters were called ‘Deplorables’ and other unflattering names,” Cahaly said on Twitter. “This was a major contributor to the ‘shy Trump voter’ phenomenon that ‘most’ polling missed, which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.”
In 2020, “people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with ‘Woke’ culture found themselves being ‘canceled’ or ‘doxed,’” he continued.
“This led to ‘hidden voters’ that ‘most’ polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations. Now [the] Biden administration has essentially classified ‘MAGA Republicans’ as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them,” the pollster wrote. “This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.”