Euromomo tells us that by week 31 of 2022 there have been 3,360 excess all-cause deaths of people under 45 across the Euromomo contributing countries. This compares with 1,640 excess all-cause deaths by week 31 in 2020 in the under-45s, an increase of 105%. All-cause, of course, includes Covid deaths.
On first reading that headline you might think, OMG, quick bring back masks, impose social distancing, close the schools! But this has got virtually nothing to do with Covid which represents a very low percentage of deaths in the under-45s.
If I really wanted to spread fear and alarm, I’d concentrate on the year-to-date excess death figures for children aged 0-14, up an incredible 2,555% in 2022 on the 2020 figure! In 2020 by week 31 across all Euromomo participating countries there had been 29 excess deaths in this age group. Incredible! 29 excess deaths across virtually the whole of Europe while a once in a century pandemic was ravaging the land? This year, by contrast, by week 31 we’ve had 770 excess deaths among 0-14 year-olds. How’s that for a headline: “Child excess deaths up by over 2,500%.” But of course, it’s virtually meaningless. The Euromomo countries (see Fig 1) cover most of the big European countries, so 29 deaths or even 770 deaths across all those millions is still barely a ripple – unless it’s your child, of course.
Let me be clear. I’m not saying that parents of children should be worried, the point is they shouldn’t be worried now in 2022 and they shouldn’t have been worried back in 2020 or 2021. Right through the pandemic fiasco children have not been at any more risk than they’ve been in any other year. It’s the old story of absolute and relative risk. Buy a Euro lottery ticket to win £100 million and you’ve got as close to a zero chance of winning as makes no difference; buy two lottery tickets and you’ve just mathematically doubled your chance of winning. But, let me break it to you, you still won’t pocket the £millions.
