Posted by Richard Willett - Memes and headline comments by David Icke Posted on 12 July 2022

An Increasingly Hungry World: 8 Key Takeaways From The Food Inflation And Security Symposium

Morgan Stanley recently held a virtual Food Inflation & Security Symposium, in which the bank discussed a wide range of topics with experts from around the world. The Symposium followed the publication of the bank’s global collaborative note that involved over 30 Morgan Stanley analysts, entitled “Food Security & Inflation: From Seeds to Stores” (the note is available to professional subs).

Below we summarize the bank’s key takeaways and variables that will drive future food prices, along with associated impacts to businesses and geopolitics.

1. The majority view among experts and executives broadly matched Morgan Stanley’s view that food prices will likely reach a peak in 2022, a view that is below consensus among investors and below forward commodity prices. That said, there was significant discussion during multiple Symposium sessions around the magnitude of variables that could impact pricing, variables that are challenging to predict. For example, a chemical company executive viewed potash prices as likely to have already hit a peak, but the executive also believed that potash prices would remain high, representing a disconnect from prior periods of much lower fertilizer prices. Other experts pointed out the magnitude of impacts to food prices from crucially important (and challenging to predict) variables such as weather (especially in South America over the next several months), energy prices and geopolitics (and many speakers highlighted how closely these last two variables are linked).

2. Regarding the outlook for grain prices, with fertilizer prices declining, farmers are still investing sufficiently to drive strong yields, which supports the bank’s view that grain prices will peak in 2022. That said, weather could take the world to Morgan Stanley’s high price case on grains, especially as the odds of a third consecutive La Niña are increasing (last time this happened was in 2001), and soil in Brazil and Argentina is already dry. This could be disruptive to inventories in the next year and has become a key concern. Market players are less worried about USA weather and crops, and in their views yields should be good, bringing more inventories and relief to short-term prices. Market players believe export restrictions generate short-term stress but gradually fade away, and were not overly concerned about the impacts of the reduction in Ukrainian supply.

The Trap

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