There follows a guest post by Dr. Clare Craig, a Diagnostic Pathologist and Co-Chair of HART.
After offering the Judicial Review every excuse to not release the data on deaths in 15-19 males, the ONS has produced a report and a paper detailing deaths of the young after vaccination. The conclusion of both is simply that: “There is no evidence of an association between COVID-19 vaccination and an increased risk of death in young people.” Taking a closer look, it is very hard to agree with that conclusion.
An increase in deaths cannot be shown without having a number to compare it to, namely the number of deaths that would be expected to occur in the same time period normally. Comparing deaths in the vaccinated to the unvaccinated population introduces bias and the ONS avoided this. Hypothetically, comparing the period before and after vaccination would be ideal. However, no one is vaccinated after dying and you would need to know which people who died would have been vaccinated if they had survived, which is impossible to know. The ONS opted to compare the six week period after vaccination with the period seven to 12 weeks after vaccination for 12-29 year-olds. The idea being that after a period of time has passed the number of deaths will settle back to baseline levels. They did not justify this choice of time frame. It appears to have been entirely arbitrary.
In the supplementary material they published how many deaths occurred each week from the week of vaccination (see figure 1 below). The vertical dotted line shows 12 weeks after vaccination. It is striking that weekly reported deaths halve between week 12 and week 13 after vaccination. The ONS ignored the period after 12 weeks.