The projections, which operate under a number of assumptions including that the Omicron variant of coronavirus is half as severe as Delta, also indicate that daily Covid cases could peak at 1.4m per day if the country remains under ‘Plan B‘ rules. The number of daily hospitalisations could reach as high as 15,000 per day.
Current restrictions under Plan B include measures such as work from home guidance, compulsory mask wearing on public transport and in shops, and proof of vaccination or a negative test to attend large events or nightclubs.
The modelling, which is a pre-print and carried out by experts at the University of Warwick, projects whether outcomes would be significantly different if Step 1 restrictions – last seen in spring 2021 – were re-introduced. It suggests its introduction by 19 December would have had a significant impact on numbers, but finds its introduction in the next several days will fail to have significant impact on the trajectory. Step 1 in March was the first step out of lockdown, and included measures like the reopening of schools, and the rule of six in outdoor gatherings. Indoor gatherings were still prohibited.
Read more: Professional tossers – sorry ‘experts’ – project 3,000 daily ‘Covid’ deaths in January if Johnsonsticks to current restrictions. If they had a brain cell it would die of loneliness and if they had a smear of empathy or intelligence they would genetically implode from the shock. Laugh people – it’s all they deserve