US deaths from the coronavirus will reach 410,000 by the end of the year, more than double the current death toll, and deaths could soar to 3,000 per day in December, the University of Washington’s health institute forecast on Friday.
Deaths could be reduced by 30% if more Americans wore face masks as epidemiologists have advised, but mask-wearing is declining, the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation said.
The US death rate projected by the IHME model, which has been cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force, would more than triple the current death rate of some 850 per day.
“We expect the daily death rate in the United States, because of seasonality and declining vigilance of the public, to reach nearly 3,000 a day in December,” the institute, which bills itself as an independent research centre, said in an update of its periodic forecasts.
“Cumulative deaths expected by January 1 are 410,000; this is 225,000 deaths from now until the end of the year,” the institute said.
It previously projected 317,697 deaths by Dec. 1.
The model’s outlook for the world was even more dire, with deaths projected to triple to 2.8 million by January 1st 2021.
Dr Christopher Murray, director of the IHME, said: “Looking at the staggering Covid-19 estimates, it’s easy to get lost in the enormity of the numbers.”
He warned the world faces a ‘deadly December’, particularly in Europe, Central Asia and the US, with Covid expected to become more prevalent in colder conditions.
Read more: Classic Project Fear: US deaths from the coronavirus will reach 410,000 by the end of the year, more than double the current death toll, says COMPUTER MODEL from Gates-connected organisation (unless everyone wears masks)