‘If no measures had been taken to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus, 40 million people could have died, a new UK study finds.
Researchers at Imperial College London made the findings based on analysis which estimated the potential scale of the pandemic across the world.
But with mitigation strategies such as protecting the elderly and social distancing, the death toll could by anywhere from 50 percent to 95 percent, saving 38 million people.
In the model, the team found that, if left unchecked, around seven billion people could have been infected – about 90 percent of the global population.
Worldwide 500,000 people so far have been been infected and more than 23,000 people have died.
The researchers stress the models are not predictions of what will happen, but they illustrate the magnitude of the problem and the benefits of rapid, decisive and collective action.
The report is the twelfth from the research team since the outbreak began in Wuhan, China in December 2019.
‘Our findings suggest that all countries face a choice between intensive and costly measures to suppress transmission or risk health systems becoming rapidly overwhelmed,’ said co-author Dr Patrick Walker, a member of the faculty of medicine at Imperial.’
