Let’s go to NBC News for the word on what’s happening in Italy. March 8, 2020, “Coronavirus updates live: Million quarantined in Italy, as D.C. reports first case”. (see also this from Wall Street Journal)
This NBC piece, as so many others do, mixes and matches reports. Millions quarantined there, first case here. The tactic is meant to build up details of an overwhelming cascade of “proof”: the threat is real, the storm clouds have opened and the rain is falling.
NBC: “Italy’s government has placed more than 16 million people — a quarter of the population — under lockdown, in a drastic bid to prevent the spread of coronavirus.”
“The Lombardy region, including the city of Milan has been quarantined, as have other cities including Venice, Parma and Modena.”
“Meanwhile in the U.S., the first case has been confirmed in the capital Washington D.C. and hundreds of other cases have been reported around the country.”
At the time of the announced quarantine in Italy, the official death toll in that country was 233.
OK, here are the official “effects of the coronavirus”: around 5800 cases, 233 deaths, 16 million people quarantined. Therefore…
The cause—the virus—must be real and very dangerous.
If Lee Oswald is arrested and charged in the murder of JFK (effect), does that automatically means he committed the crime (cause)?
If a man, crossing the street against a red light, is run down by a car (effect), does that mean a self-proclaimed witch, who stared at the man for three seconds before he stepped off the curb, put a curse on him (cause)?
The effect does not prove the cause. It never did. It never will. Aristotle figured this out 2300 years ago.
“But…but…why would they announce a huge quarantine in Italy, unless the virus were a tremendous threat?”
I’ve published a number of articles explaining reasons for governments acting the way they do. None of those reasons has anything to do with a virus. (archive here)
“But I FEEL like the virus is deadly…”
I feel like the moon is made of cheese, when there is no cheese in the refrigerator. It’s a quirk. I manage to control it.
“I BELIEVE the virus is dangerous.”
On that basis, consider starting a church.
There is a condition called pellagra. In the early 20th century, several million people in the American South suffered from it. That was the effect. Public health officials thought the cause was a germ (or a corn toxin). After all, a disease must have a germ behind it, right? Wrong. About 30 years later, after fighting an uphill battle, a few researchers correctly convinced the medical world that pellagra was the result of a niacin deficiency.
The effect does not prove the cause.
If you were a) demented, and b) the ruler of a nation, and you suddenly decided to lock down 20 million people, would that prove you had a good reason for your action? Your followers might think so. The press might pretend to think so, in order to improve their bottom line. But in truth, you just did what you did. Or you were coerced into it, by more powerful persons.
Finally, exactly how were these 5800 “coronavirus cases” determined in Italy? How many people were labeled “presumptive cases” simply because they were in the proximity of people who had tested positive for the virus—tested by lab procedures which, actually, say nothing about how much virus is actively replicating in the body? The tests, as it turns out, are a piece of theatrical stage magic, and nowhere near as convincing as a man pulling a rabbit out of a hat. If you’re going to say a test reveals actual disease, at the very least you must show that millions of virus are replicating in the body. And the test, called PCR, as I’ve described in past articles, isn’t capable of confirming that.
Of course, proponents of the test claim it CAN confirm how much virus is replicating in the human body. I would ask them, since they’re so certain, to prove it.
I propose a simple trial. From a hundred people, tiny samples of tissue will be removed—the standard first step. Without knowing who these patients are, or whether they are ill, the test professionals will run the samples through their PCR, and then, with the results in hand, they will report a) which viruses they found, and b) how much virus. In those instances where they found a large amount of virus, the patients should be ill. Are they?
Let’s find out.
Let’s find out what “a case of coronavirus” really means or doesn’t mean.
The burden of proving the test is reliable falls on the people who are using it, reporting case numbers based on it, and changing the shape of society as a result of it. They should have performed the experiment I propose decades ago. Ten times. Fifty times. A hundred times.
I see no evidence that they have.
Therefore, the test falls into the realm of SUPERSTITION.
And the quarantining of 16 million people in Italy proves that 16 million people have been quarantined. Nothing else.